NEW YORK: Fitch Ratings in its recent report has forecasted a growth of
2.5% in Global Container volumes in 2020. While this represents a small
increase from 2019, it is well below the average growth rate of about
4.5% over the past eight years, says the report.
Trade restrictions, if they remain unresolved, are likely to have a negative impact on Global Container volumes of about 1% in 2020, according to AP Moller-Maersk.
“We expect better capacity management in Global Container shipping with fleet capacity increasing by 3.3% in 2020, slower than 3.6% in 2019. Container freight rates in 2020 are likely to remain at levels similar to those in 2019,” the agency added.
Dry Bulk
Fitch expects Dry-Bulk trading volumes to grow by 3% in 2020, up by more than 1.5 percentage points on 2019, due to higher iron ore and other commodities volumes. Iron ore volumes are expected to slowly recover following the Vale dam incident in Brazil and challenging weather at Australian Ports in 2019.
Fleet additions are likely to match this growth in volumes, and freight rates are likely to increase as dry-bulk shippers will be better positioned to pass on some of the higher fuel costs.
Tankers
Global tankers’ supply and demand are likely to grow by 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively, in 2020, supporting a better supply-demand balance. This will help freight rates to stay at levels comparable to annual averages in 2019, which represents a recovery from their troughs in the middle of 2018, the report says.
Trade restrictions, if they remain unresolved, are likely to have a negative impact on Global Container volumes of about 1% in 2020, according to AP Moller-Maersk.
“We expect better capacity management in Global Container shipping with fleet capacity increasing by 3.3% in 2020, slower than 3.6% in 2019. Container freight rates in 2020 are likely to remain at levels similar to those in 2019,” the agency added.
Dry Bulk
Fitch expects Dry-Bulk trading volumes to grow by 3% in 2020, up by more than 1.5 percentage points on 2019, due to higher iron ore and other commodities volumes. Iron ore volumes are expected to slowly recover following the Vale dam incident in Brazil and challenging weather at Australian Ports in 2019.
Fleet additions are likely to match this growth in volumes, and freight rates are likely to increase as dry-bulk shippers will be better positioned to pass on some of the higher fuel costs.
Tankers
Global tankers’ supply and demand are likely to grow by 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively, in 2020, supporting a better supply-demand balance. This will help freight rates to stay at levels comparable to annual averages in 2019, which represents a recovery from their troughs in the middle of 2018, the report says.
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